Four years ago, a stunning photo from Khartoum of a 22-year-old woman in a flowing white robe standing atop a car with a finger pointing skyward captured the aspirations of the Sudanese people for a better future. She was leading a crowd in a chant of “thawra” — “revolution” in Arabic — and the popular defiance she symbolized led to the ouster of Sudan’s 30-year dictator, Omar Hassan al-Bashir. He was replaced by a joint military-civilian council that was to pave the way to full democracy.
Today, the hope and promise of that day have been shattered by the senseless slaughter taking place in Khartoum as two rival military strongmen, both part of that initial ruling council, battle for supremacy. Tank fire, mortars, artillery and even reported airstrikes in the capital’s dense urban setting and other cities have killed hundreds of civilians and wounded thousands, while most people are left cowering in their homes or trying to flee the city. Reports say the injured cannot get to hospitals and aid delivery is practically impossible. A promised three-day cease-fire by both sides to mark the Eid al-Fitr holiday largely failed to materialize as the fighting continued unabated. The U.S. military evacuated American diplomats and their families, but other American citizens along with other foreign nationals remained trapped around the country.
Both leaders need to check their egos, order their forces to stand down and observe an immediate cease-fire. Their casual disregard for civilians’ lives, as well as their obvious disdain for the Sudanese people’s clearly expressed democratic aspirations, shows that neither of them is fit to govern.
On one side is Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, commander of the Sudanese armed forces and the country’s de facto president after he led a coup in 2021 and took charge of a newly formed Transitional Sovereignty Council, jettisoning the military-civilian alliance. A lifelong military man who fought in the Darfur War in the early 2000s, Gen. Burhan was always a suspect figure to lead a transition to anything, except another extended dictatorship.
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On the other side is Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, the current vice president and leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, which may have around 100,000 fighters. The RSF is an outgrowth of the old Janjaweed Arab militia that was responsible for the genocide and other atrocities carried out in Darfur against Sudanese African tribes. If it is possible to find someone even more odious than Gen. Burhan, then Hemedti would be the one.
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Despite their long-standing rivalry, the two strongmen managed to bury their differences long enough to work together in a power-sharing deal to thwart any move toward civilian rule, perpetuate themselves in power, and continue to enrich themselves and their respective factions. Gen. Burhan reportedly oversees a network of private and state-owned companies while Hemedti is wealthy from a network of family businesses, including gold mining. That gives both men the financial war chests they need to keep the carnage going.
But their devil’s bargain apparently fell apart over Gen. Burhan’s insistence that the RSF formally fold itself into the armed forces instead of existing as a stand-alone force with its own command structure. Now an entire population is held hostage to their competing ambitions.
The fighting has the increasing possibility of spilling over Sudan’s borders. South Sudan could see a disruption to its oil exports, which must pass through Sudan. Neighboring Chad could be rocked by instability since Hemedti’s forces are known to cross the border at will. Refugees fleeing the fighting could start heading to other countries.
There have also been reports of outside powers meddling to fuel the fighting. Egypt is reportedly backing Gen. Burhan while Hemedti is said to have backing from a militia that controls eastern Libya. More ominously, the Russian mercenary Wagner group, active in other parts of Africa, including Libya, is reported to have ties to Hemedti’s RSF.
Sadly, this is a familiar script in Africa, where the ouster of a longtime dictator often leads to violence and chaos instead of a brighter democratic future. In Somalia in 1991, the fall of longtime dictator Mohamed Siad Barre led to decades of anarchy and famine, with rival Somali warlords battling for control. The early promise of the Arab Spring in 2011 led to civil war and strife in Libya and the return of an authoritarian strongman in Egypt.
The international community, including the United States, should apply all the pressure it can to bring these two dueling military commanders to their senses and agree to, and respect, an immediate cease-fire — including by issuing warnings that they will be held to account, just like Mr. Bashir, who was indicted by the International Criminal Court. Then Sudan’s military rulers should allow for the promised transition to full civilian democratic governance. Only then will the dreams of those 2019 protesters be realized.